Participation level:
- Low (Information only)
Innovation level:
- High (Innovative)
Facilitator skill level, and other support required:
- High (Specialist skills)
- Medium (Computer & other expertise)
Can be used for:
- Showcase product, plan, policy
- Engage community
- Discover community issues
- Develop community capacity
- Develop action plan
Scenario testing is a way to test alternative (hypothetical) futures so as to make better choices today.
Generally, scenario testing would deliver three scenarios: a positive (or optimistic), negative (or pessimistic), and neutral (or middle of the road) scenario. These allow a more realistic assessment of future possibilities which does not assume either the best or worst outcomes. The scenarios could also include an unlikely event but one that would have a large impact were it to occur.
- Avoids having to model complex situations.
- Allows you to alter combinations and play 'what if' games (e.g. change the assumption and see what happens).
- Provides understanding of events and possible combinations. (Source: Seminar on Futures Techniques http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/Backcasting)
- Agreement may not be reached on what is the 'right' scenario to include (if the questions are controversial).
- Scenarios must be recognised as possibilities only, not firm predictions.(Source: Seminar on Futures Techniques http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/Backcasting)
Organizing Scenario Planning
How many people to organize?
- Large (> 12 people)
- Medium (2-12 people)
Time required:
- Short (< 6 weeks)
Cost:
- Medium (AUD$1,000-AUD$10,000)
- Low (< AUD$1,000)
- Invite participants who have knowledge of, or are affected by, the proposal or issue of interest.
- Invite participants to identify the underlying paradigms or unwritten laws of change; trends or driving forces and collect into general categories (economy, socio/political, etcetera); and wildcards or uncertainties.
- Consider how these might affect a situation, either singly or in combination, using these steps:
- Review the big picture
- Review general approaches to future studies
- Identify what you know and what you don't know
- Select possible paradigm shifts and use them as an overall guide
- Cluster trends and see which driving forces are most relevant to your scenario
- Create alternative scenarios (similar to alternate scenes in a play) by mixing wildcards with trends and driving forces; keep the number of scenarios small (four is ideal because it avoids the 'either' 'or' choice of two, and the good/bad/medium choice of three).
- Write a brief report that states assumptions and future framework; provides observations and conclusions; gives a range of possibiltiies, and focuses on the next steps coming out of this study. Each scenario should be about one page.
References
Description
"Scenarios are a way of developing alternative futures based on different combinations of assumptions, facts and trends, and areas where more understanding is needed for your particular scenario project. They are called 'scenarios' because they are like 'scenes' in the theatre - a series of differing views or presentations of the same general topic. Once you see several scenarios at the same time, you better understand your options or possibilities." (Seminar on Futures Techniques, http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html).
Scenario testing is useful to:
- identify general, broad, driving forces, which are applicable to all scenarios,
- identify a variety of PLAUSIBLE trends within each issue or trend (trends that vary depending on your assumptions so you get positive and negative perspectives), and
- combine the trends so you get a series of scenarios (for example, mostly positive trends identified in relation to an issue would give a positive scenario).
"Scenario testing's greatest use is in developing an understanding of the situation, rather than trying to predict the future." (Source: http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html)
This page originally copied with permission from the Citizens Science Toolbox
