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"Scenarios are a way of developing alternative futures based on different combinations of assumptions, facts and trends, and areas where more understanding is needed for your particular scenario project. They are called 'scenarios' because they are like 'scenes' in the theatre - a series of differing views or presentations of the same general topic. Once you see several scenarios at the same time, you better understand your options or possibilities." (Seminar on Futures Techniques, http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html).
Scenario testing is useful to:
- identify general, broad, driving forces, which are applicable to all scenarios,
- identify a variety of PLAUSIBLE trends within each issue or trend (trends that vary depending on your assumptions so you get positive and negative perspectives), and
- combine the trends so you get a series of scenarios (for example, mostly positive trends identified in relation to an issue would give a positive scenario).
"Scenario testing's greatest use is in developing an understanding of the situation, rather than trying to predict the future." (Source: http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html)
This page originally copied with permission from the Citizens Science Toolbox