Participation level:
- Low (Information only)
Innovation level:
- High (Innovative)
Facilitator skill level, and other support required:
- High (Specialist skills)
- Medium (Computer & other expertise)
Can be used for:
- Showcase product, plan, policy
- Engage community
- Discover community issues
- Develop community capacity
- Develop action plan
Scenario testing is a way to test alternative (hypothetical) futures so as to make better choices today.
Generally, scenario testing would deliver three scenarios: a positive (or optimistic), negative (or pessimistic), and neutral (or middle of the road) scenario. These allow a more realistic assessment of future possibilities which does not assume either the best or worst outcomes. The scenarios could also include an unlikely event but one that would have a large impact were it to occur.
- Avoids having to model complex situations.
- Allows you to alter combinations and play 'what if' games (e.g. change the assumption and see what happens).
- Provides understanding of events and possible combinations. (Source: Seminar on Futures Techniques http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/Backcasting)
- Agreement may not be reached on what is the 'right' scenario to include (if the questions are controversial).
- Scenarios must be recognised as possibilities only, not firm predictions.(Source: Seminar on Futures Techniques http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/Backcasting)
Organizing Scenario Planning
How many people to organize?
- Large (> 12 people)
- Medium (2-12 people)
Time required:
- Short (< 6 weeks)
Cost:
- Medium (AUD$1,000-AUD$10,000)
- Low (< AUD$1,000)
- Invite participants who have knowledge of, or are affected by, the proposal or issue of interest.
- Invite participants to identify the underlying paradigms or unwritten laws of change; trends or driving forces and collect into general categories (economy, socio/political, etcetera); and wildcards or uncertainties.
- Consider how these might affect a situation, either singly or in combination, using these steps:
- Review the big picture
- Review general approaches to future studies
- Identify what you know and what you don't know
- Select possible paradigm shifts and use them as an overall guide
- Cluster trends and see which driving forces are most relevant to your scenario
- Create alternative scenarios (similar to alternate scenes in a play) by mixing wildcards with trends and driving forces; keep the number of scenarios small (four is ideal because it avoids the 'either' 'or' choice of two, and the good/bad/medium choice of three).
- Write a brief report that states assumptions and future framework; provides observations and conclusions; gives a range of possibiltiies, and focuses on the next steps coming out of this study. Each scenario should be about one page.
